A survey from the research organization ProximityOne has found that the Rochester, NY region may be facing both positive and negative changes in the future. The study found that Monroe County is projected to diversify faster in the next 50 years than all but six metropolitan counties in the United States, reaching a non-Caucasian population of 42% by 2060. Unfortunately, in a city with a complex racial history and a number of existing social and economic challenges, experts say that changes will need to be made in order to create a healthy community for the future.

Currently, Monroe County has a population that is 76% white. The area is also struggling economically, according to a 2013 study from the Rochester Area Community Reporting that says Rochester has the second highest rate of child poverty in the nation, as well as the poorest and worst performing urban school district and the third-highest concentration of neighborhoods rated as “extremely poor.” While these statistics are already problematic, increasing diversity could make Rochester a textbook example of inequality: with a projected African-American population of 26% and an expected Hispanic population of 13%, current poverty rates could easily establish Monroe County as the new Milwaukee, which presently has the highest achievement gap between black and white students.

To prevent this, a number of community campaigns are focusing on four areas: education, jobs, justice and housing. While struggles over the direction and quality of the city school district have become a popular topic for the media, and its issues with unemployment and crime typically match national trends, the lack of affordable housing in New York State as a whole is equally important, but less commonly discussed.

Reasonably priced housing is starting to gain more attention. For example, in a debate between gubernatorial candidates held in Buffalo on October 22, current governor Andrew Cuomo challenged the Republican candidate Rob Astorino over previous charges of corruption: Astorino previously fought a housing settlement, which would have created 750 affordable housing units in Westchester County for diverse, low-income families. Cuomo noted that a federal monitor has since accused Astorino of making false statements about the settlement. In response, Astorino accused Cuomo of playing “the race card,” a move that was likely intentional: Cuomo is widely believed to be targeting Western New York after losing the area in the last election, and with diversity on the rise, painting his opponent as discriminatory, particularly when it comes to affordable housing, could be highly effective.

Many beneficial changes will likely occur at the local level too. With low-income residents typically forced into impoverished areas, many landlords may begin to utilize new property management services and techniques to open their units to this new wave of potential tenants. Studies show that hiring an experienced property management firm can help a property owner lower their monthly energy bills by as much as 50% by simply analyzing a buildings’ power needs and making necessary upgrades. These savings could easily carry over to tenants. However, community leaders have also remarked that change will be impossible if the city is unable to disrupt generational poverty. A Unite Rochester panel has begun negotiating with area suburbs and villages to see if it would be possible to expand affordable housing opportunities throughout Monroe County.